Up until this point, I’ve only posted my seed list and bracket projections, but given that we’re now less than three weeks from Selection Sunday, I’ll post some thoughts on each of the potential Mountain West tournament teams, as well as some others that I find intriguing. Expect future posts to be slightly less wordy.
*RES = Average of resume metrics, KPI and SOR
*QUAL = Average of predictive metrics, KenPom and BPI
Utah State –
After what feels like five consecutive years on or near the bubble, Aggie fans can (almost) breathe easy as we head into March. Utah State has completely avoided bad losses this year, the worst loss coming back in November at Bradley, which remains a Q1 defeat. Despite not playing a single Power 6 opponent in the nonconference, the Aggies managed to rack up three Q2 and three Q3 wins, including two over likely mid-major conference champions (Akron and UC Irvine). The only thing left to do is avoid landmines against the three MW bottom feeders, and they’ll host New Mexico for at the very least a share of the conference title and the coveted 1 seed in the conference tournament. Projections have Utah State hovering around the 6/7 line. Paradoxically, Aggie fans hoping for a short drive to Salt Lake City might need to hope for a fall to the 8-line, where they could be paired up with Arizona. The other alternative would likely be to end as a 5 or 6 seed, and hope to be placed with the corresponding 3/4 seed. Jumping up to be the protected seed in Salt Lake would require being seeded overall roughly 12-14, which appears unlikely even if the Aggies win out.
Boise State –
On the other hand, Boise’s nonconference schedule was much more daunting, ranking 29th in the nation. Unfortunately, they lost to all four P6 teams on the schedule, mitigated by a neutral court win over St. Mary’s that has aged like wine. On the bright side, Boise is the only MW team to win two road games over the other tourney bound league foes (Nevada, New Mexico). The schedule is no lighter to end conference play, as Boise will host those same two teams looking for revenge, followed by the season finale at Viejas Arena. The Broncos are looking solid for the moment, but will need to take at least one, if not two, of those final three games to feel safe heading into Vegas. On the other hand, if they can win out through this brutal stretch, a 5-seed is not out of the question.
San Diego State –
Aztec fans have long claimed that the Mountain West goes through Viejas Arena, and they have been proven right in that the home fortress has yet to be conquered. Unfortunately, the Aztecs are 2-5 on the road in conference play, having lost to all five of the other teams on this list, and they no longer control their own destiny for a second consecutive regular season title. San Diego State has managed to avoid bad losses even more than Utah State, with each of their seven losses coming in Q1 true road games to teams projected to make the tournament. Add that to a resume with a neutral court win over St. Mary’s, a win at Gonzaga, and maybe a touch of lingering bias from their National Championship run a year ago, and the Selection Committee seeded the Aztecs 14th overall on the bracket preview show 10 days ago.
Nevada –
The Wolf Pack played a nonconference schedule riddled with Q3 and Q4 opponents, but made the most of their opportunities with wins at Washington and on a neutral court over TCU. Early conference losses at home to Boise State and at Wyoming appeared to put the dream of a 6-bid MW on hold, but Nevada has stormed back to win 6 of 7, including at Utah State and home over San Diego State and Colorado State, with the only losses coming by a single point to New Mexico. Steve Alford’s group finishes with road dates at Colorado State and Boise State, and home games vs. Fresno and UNLV. Holding serve at home might be enough to make the field, but a third win, whether it be in Vegas or one of the final two road games, would likely ensure a second straight tournament bid for the Pack.
Colorado State –
The Rams were king of the hill in the nonconference, with wins overs Creighton, Colorado, and Washington, and the only defeat coming at home against St. Mary’s. Conference play started out on the same trajectory with a home win over New Mexico, but CSU is just 7-7 since, with road losses to each of the other top 8 teams in the league, including blowing an 11-point lead in the final 65 seconds at Wyoming. The Rams have done well to hold serve at home and finish with among the easier slates in the MW, hosting Nevada and Wyoming, and traveling to Air Force to end the season. Even with a potential loss to the Wolf Pack, expect the Rams to go dancing if they can avoid a catastrophic Q4 loss in the final two games.
New Mexico –
Speaking of catastrophic Q4 losses… three days ago, New Mexico was sitting pretty with fantastic computer numbers and multiple dominant home wins over Utah State, San Diego State, and Nevada. Many, many defensive lapses later, the Lobos now have a Q4 home loss, comparable only to Northwestern’s loss to Chicago State and Mississippi State’s loss to Southern among tournament hopefuls. All of a sudden, the warts in this resume that had been overlooked are now rearing their ugly head. New Mexico’s NCSOS is the worst among the league contenders, the best out of league win was a neutral site win over Santa Clara, and they were swept in the season series by UNLV. More than any other team, New Mexico would really benefit from UNLV becoming top 75 in the NET, to take away that Q3 home defeat. A one-point win at Nevada is looking absolutely massive now, but New Mexico will likely need to repeat that feat against either Boise State or Utah State to end the season, or they might be on the outside looking in for the second year in a row.
Others
Texas –
Predictive metrics and the NET shine favorably on the Longhorns, but Texas is only 8-10 in the first three quadrants, and sits a very scary 45th in the resume metrics, with nothing to show from their OOC schedule. Only one team in the NET era has ever made the tournament with a Q1-Q3 record two games under .500, so Texas sneakily has some real work to do. Of course, opportunity abounds in the Big 12.
Ole Miss –
On the other side of the equation, Ole Miss has a resume that barely resembles tournament worthiness, with one notable exception – resume metrics, which historically hold more sway than predictive metrics when it comes to selection. The NET and predictive metrics are huge outliers among tournament contenders, and being 4-8 in Q1/Q2 is usually more representative of the NIT bubble; however, seven of their eight losses are to tournament teams, and the Rebels do hold wins over Florida, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. Wednesday’s home game vs. Alabama may be make or break.
Wake Forest –
The Demon Deacons appeared to have burst their way off the bubble (and the student section onto the court with time remaining vs. Duke, but who’s counting), but a closer look at the resume still shows some real flaws. The home win vs. Duke was only their second Q1 win of the season, and the other, Florida, is currently #30 in the NET, one spot away from dropping to Q2. Wake is also just 2-7 on the road, with their best win away from Winston-Salem being… at Boston College. No matter how much Steve Forbes despises Joe Lunardi, and Wake fans on Twitter despise basically everyone, the Demon Deacons may need a 3-1 finish to go dancing.
Gonzaga –
It is make or break week for the Bulldogs. Despite gaudy computer numbers and an uber-impressive win at Rupp Arena, Gonzaga is just 1-5 against Q1, and 3-6 against the top two quadrants, with resume metrics that would likely have them among the first four out. Q1 road dates at San Francisco (at the Chase Center) and at St. Mary’s await this week to end the regular season. Win both – you’re in. Lose both – autobid or bust. Split the pair… and it’s dicey. A Q1 record of 2-7 may not cut it, assuming a third loss to St. Mary’s in the WCC final.
Bracketology 
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