Welcome to the final weekend of the regular season for 14 of the 32 conferences, including possible multi-bid leagues in the Sun Belt, WCC, and MVC. Today we will look at each top-7 MW team’s remaining schedule, chances of a regular season conference championship, and path to an at-large bid. Also, a Big East Bubble Bonanza!
*RES = Average of resume metrics, KPI and SOR
*QUAL = Average of predictive metrics, KenPom and BPI
Utah State –
Remaining schedule: vs. AFA, @ SJSU, vs. UNM
Path to a conference championship – Win out. Could also share the title with one loss and a BSU loss.
Path to an at-large bid – I still hesitate to give USU the coveted LOCK status, because they could theoretically lose out, pick up a Q3 and Q4 loss in the regular season, fall to the 6-seed in Vegas, and pick up another Q4 loss in the first round. A nonconference win over Akron is teetering on the edge of Q3 as well. At that point, the Aggies would be just 7-6 in Q1/Q2 with a Q3 loss and two Q4 losses. Add in a couple bid thieves… and who knows?
TLDR – Don’t pull a New Mexico tomorrow
Boise State –
Remaining schedule: vs. UNM, vs. Nevada, @ SDSU
Path to a conference championship – Win out. Could also share the title with one loss and a USU loss.
Path to an at-large bid – It’s a little tricky here – No landmines remain on the schedule, but at just 8-8 in Q1/Q2 with a Q3 loss, you definitely don’t want to finish 0-3. Win two or three of the last three, and you’re locked in. Win just one, and you’re probably okay, but would love to snag one more win in Vegas to feel safe.
San Diego State –
Remaining schedule: @ UNLV, vs. BSU
Path to a conference championship – Win out + a USU loss
Path to an at-large bid – LOCK – no possible scenario where the Aztecs are left out – playing for seeding at this point, and could end up as high as a 3-seed with a strong finish
Nevada –
Remaining schedule: vs. FSU, @ BSU, vs. UNLV
Path to a conference championship – Win out + a USU loss
Path to an at-large bid – Nevada has skyrocketed up the at-large ladder over the last few weeks, and now holds an impressive 6-5 record vs. Q1, with an additional Q2 win, and one Q3 loss. Same as USU, losing out + a first round exit would put the Wolf Pack in serious danger, adding a Q3 (if UNLV remains below 75 in the NET) and 2 Q4 losses. Beat Fresno on Saturday, and you’re going dancing.
UNLV –
Remaining schedule: vs. SJSU, vs. SDSU, @ Nevada
Path to a conference championship – Win out + a USU/BSU loss
Path to an at-large bid – Unlikely, but not impossible – No team has ever earned an at-large bid with three Q4 losses. However, I can’t imagine that any previous team with three Q4 losses also had a 9-4 record in Q1 and an 8-2 road record, which UNLV would have if they won out until the conference championship game. Probably safer just to win one more game if it gets to that point.
New Mexico –
Remaining schedule: @ BSU, vs. FSU. @ USU
Path to a conference championship – Win out + an additional loss by each of USU/BSU/UNLV/Nevada/SDSU
Path to an at-large bid – LOCK – no possible scenario where the Aztecs are left out – playing for seeding at this point, and could end up as high as a 3-seed with a strong finish
Colorado State –
Remaining schedule: vs. WYO, @ AFA
Path to a conference championship – None
Path to an at-large bid – Don’t lose to WYO/AFA/SJSU – The Rams have used up all their margin for error having lost four of five, and now face three consecutive Q4 games, including the first round of the conference tournament. Win out, and you’re in, even with a quarterfinal loss. Lose one, and you might have work to do in Vegas to feel comfortable.
Others
It’s a Big East party at the bubble! UConn, Marquette, and Creighton are all locked in and likely top-4 seeds. After that, we go all the way down to the bubble, where Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, and Villanova can each be found on most Last Four In/First Four Out lists. NCAA Director of Media Coordination/Statistics David Worlock even chimed in on Twitter, stating that the Committee would be allowed to place three Big East teams in the First Four, if that’s how the seed lines fall. It seems likely that at least one or two of these teams will make the field of 68, but definitely not all four. Let’s analyze the pros and cons of each candidate:
Seton Hall –
Remaining schedule: @ UConn, vs. Villanova, vs. DePaul
Pros – Best Q1 record, best Q1/Q2 record, best road record, wins vs. UConn AND Marquette, wins @ St. John’s and Providence
Cons – Poor predictive metrics, two Q3 losses
Seton Hall certainly appears to be in the best shape of the four at the moment. However, a trip to UConn seems an almost certain defeat, and a home loss to Villanova could leave work to be done at MSG, as the home finale vs. DePaul is all risk/no reward. Win one of those first two, and Seton Hall is dancing.
Providence –
Remaining schedule: vs. Villanova, @ Georgetown, vs. UConn
Pros – Five Q1 wins, no bad losses, home wins over Marquette and Creighton
Cons – poor record away from home, just 8-10 vs. Q1-Q3
Somehow, at Georgetown next week will be the first Q3 game of the season for Providence. As mentioned with Texas earlier in the week, being under .500 against the first three quadrants is a risky place to be. Providence needs two out of the last three to feel good about their chances heading into conference tournament play.
St. John’s –
Remaining schedule: @ DePaul, vs. Georgetown
Pros – strong predictive metrics, home win over Creighton
Cons – 3-9 vs. Q1, Q3 loss
After a stretch where the Johnnies lost seven of nine, punctuated by a very blunt Rick Pitino press conference, they’ve done taken steps to be “in position to be in position” with Q1 wins vs. Creighton and @ Butler. Two cupcakes remain that won’t help the resume, and St. John’s will likely need at least one big win at MSG, but they’re still breathing. Remaining opportunities are complicated by the fact that all conference tournament games will be classified as home games for NET purposes, being played at MSG, so they can only pick up a Q1 win by beating one of the big three.
Villanova –
Remaining schedule: @ Providence, @ Seton Hall, vs. Creighton
Pros – Strong predictive metrics/NET, good NCSOS, neutral win over UNC, @ Creighton
Cons – Three Q3 losses, poor away record Villanova has the best nonconference win of the bunch, on a neutral court over a potential 1-seed. Unfortunately, participation in the Philadelphia Big 5 might cost the Wildcats a tournament bid, taking losses to Penn, Saint Joseph’s, and Drexel. The upcoming schedule will give them every opportunity to make their case – facing two of the three fellow bubble teams on the road, and home vs. Creighton. Three Q1 opportunities – win two, and you’re feeling pretty good.
Bracketology 
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